Hard choices

The SNP should debate whether a separate Scotland should join the EU post-Brexit. But all their options are bad

A hard border in Great Britain?

Many Scottish nationalists use Northern Ireland as Brexit grievance fodder. It’s an ugly gambit: Scotland is a country which voted to stay in the UK very recently, not a post-conflict region with a contested land border. Nonetheless, Theresa May’s backstop and Boris Johnson’s frontstop for Northern Ireland show what you need to keep a border open.

Liechtenstein manages, but Scotland is not a microstate

Granted, one EEA member has an open border with a non-EEA neighbour. Liechtenstein has had a customs union with Switzerland since 1923. It also applies Swiss VAT law. They planned to join the EEA together, but the Swiss rejected joining in a referendum. Switzerland pursued bilateral agreements with the EU instead.

Cake from London, Brussels, Oslo, Reykjavik and Vaduz? No chance

Only EU membership could grant Scotland a proper vote on EU rules. Overall, though, being a giant Liechtenstein might well be better for an independent Scotland than EU membership. But it’s not going to happen. Neither EU nor EFTA countries will cut corners to keep the Scotland-UK border open. Doing so would mean 49% of the EEA’s non-EU population lived in an anomaly next door to a far trickier neighbour than Switzerland.

Breaking up is hard to do

So Scottish secession means a hard Border unless Brexit softens or the UK rejoins the EU. Joining the EEA would allow fewer barriers with the UK in some areas (eg agricultural tariffs) if the UK agreed. Nonetheless, EEA membership would remain a choice to dealign from the UK.

Data from the Scottish Government. Figures do not add to 100% due to rounding. Flag images from Wikipedia.

Secession will hurt. So tell Scots what you think they’re paying for

The economic arguments against Brexit apply in spades to breaking up Britain. Scotland’s biggest economic interest lies in its home market with most of its trade. Economic gravity, crucial in Europe according to the SNP (and they’re right), still applies within the UK. If Scotland secedes, the closest possible alignment with the UK would be its least damaging option.

--

--

Liberal-minded social democrat seeks readers.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store